It’s hard to predict before a year starts what the big stories might be. For 2012, “End of the World” and “Mayan Calendars” were a good bet. But, like often happens, #1 seeds can easily be taken out by upstart wildcards.

Who would have guessed that approx. 100 years after the sinking of the Titanic we’d still be trying to figure out how to safely navigate people around the ocean in boats? In the biggest understatements of all time, headlines are screaming, “Cruise ship went off course.” Ya think? That seems so patently obvious I doubt even Sherlock Holmes himself would dare to mention it as “elementary” to Mr. Watson.

The ship has been scraped open like a tin can. “Off course” seems to be the least of its problems.

Tom’s Law #42:

All of the nautical knowledge and scientific advancements acquired by our society since the the 1912 sinking of the Titanic can easily be overridden and defeated by a single human being.

And that’s pretty much the way a year works. In 2011 I’d never ever heard of a ship called the Costa Concordia. Now we all recognize that name.

And it’s only Jan. 16th. The odds of the biggest story of the year will come in January are approx. 1 in 12. And in the first half of the month? The odds are about 1 in 24. So it’s very likely there’s still so much more to come.

In my world, however, even that story is dwarfed by the news out of Afghanistan. The video of U.S. Marines urinating on dead Taliban soldiers. I’ll have several thoughts about this, hopefully cogent, and I hope I can remember to get them all out before I forget what they are. My brain sometimes goes in too many directions at once.
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